The chances of this pandemic to finish in near future, are very high. I’ll explain it from my point of view with blends of History and public health aspects.
From the very beginning i want to start with the history, Some historians believe that pandemic has two types of endings or Social ending; like :
The social ending –
When the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes. In this ending, the end not happens because the sickness has been conquered.
But since individuals become burnt out on the frenzy mode and figure out how to live along with the disease.
The medical ending –
When incidence and death rates plummet.
The WHO will proclaim the pandemic over when the disease is, for the most part, contained, and paces of transmission drop altogether all through the world. In any case, precisely when that happens relies upon what worldwide governments decide to do straightaway.
There are may best three ways to deal with the pandemic, in my opinion :
Race through it is widely considered best, and it may not be the one you think.
Delay and Vaccinate.
Coordinate and Crush.
In the first option, there are no quarantine and social distancing norms. The Government will allow people to be exposed as quickly as possible. This will lead to peak capacity in the hospitals almost immediately.
There will be millions of deaths, either from the virus or the collapse of the healthcare system. The majority of the population will be infected in this case. Some perished, and some survived by building up their immune response. Around this point, the herding community kicks in, where the virus can no longer find new hosts.
So the pandemic frizzles out in a short time after it began. It is a quick fix, but a global catastrophe, and also it may not work at all if people can be reinfected.
In the second option, the Government imposes full lockdown in the containment zones and emphasizes strict social distancing norms. This will slow down the spread and give research facilities time to develop a vaccine. This time can be used for widespread testing to identify carriers, quarantining the infected and people they’ve interacted with. These measures can slow down the death toll. Some cities get the outbreak under control and go back to healthy regular life.
Once 40–90% of the population has received it, herd immunity kicks in, and the pandemic fizzles out. Ultimately, vaccination assisted by as much global cooperation is the winner.
This is the slow, steady, and proven option.
The last option is to simultaneously starve the virus, everywhere through a combination of quarantine social distancing and restricting travel. The critical factor is to synchronize responses. In a pandemic, when one country is peaking, another may be getting its first case. Instead of separate governments dealing with what’s happening in their territory, here everyone must treat the world as an extensive interconnected system. With full coordination, this method can end pandemic within a few months, with low life loss. If the virus is not entirely eradicated(which is highly unlikely), then the situation can again escalate to the pandemic level. So, this method is only reliable with real and nearly impossible global cooperation.
Due to economic catastrophe wreaked by lockdown, some states have lifted restrictions.
The end-game of COVID-19 will involve a mix of efforts that stopped historic outbreaks: social-control measures, medication, and vaccine.
What are the possibilities?
Well, One thing you should about the viruses is that you can’t kill them like bacteria.
In all the viral diseases i-e Hepatitis, Influenza, AIDS, Polio, Small Pox, Mumps, and all others that we know till now, we’re not efficient enough to kill viruses.
Then, How viruses are treated?
In some cases, we vaccinate the person to make it immune to the disease. At the same time, other viruses got weak over time, and their pathogenic effect is reduced since we don’t know about the structure of this virus causing COVID-19; till now, we don’t see how its lifecycle goes on.
There are other possibilities,
Like influenza flu, high temperature and high humidity slowed the spread of the coronavirus, and at very high temperatures, the virus stopped spreading ultimately.
Efforts to contain the virus are high, especially as the weather will start to warm, but the prospect that summer could stave off an infection is still enticing.
Let’s hope that the next summer brings all good news
The scientist is also developing an immunogenic vaccine by the genomics approach by delivering the virus’s antigenic signal mRNA to the B and T cells of our immune system to produce an antibody against the virus capsid.
Though this method doesn’t need any phase trials so one can save a lot of time wasted during phase trials, still, the specificity of the antibodies might be a problem for the long run as it might be possible to develop an autoimmune response.
Instead of wasting billions of dollars on capitalism, if the governments would have been spent it correctly on the research and development, the scenario would be different.
As a health policy analyst, I must say:
Don’t know how it will go, but for sure, the afterward situation would be like below.
- Stock markets soar
- The pharmaceutical company which invented antidote files a patent and became filthy rich
- Airfare surge
- Pubs, malls become overcrowded again
- People start the celebration
- Sanitizing companies busy in counting cash
- Due to quarantine or lockdown, the world has nothing to do, but pregnancy rate may higher & hospitals worldwide become full again by the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021, a whole new generation sees Corona free world.
- Life goes normal
So Stay Safe, Stay At Home, Stay Alert & Healthy.